JWU FEB 1

Feb 1, 2014

 

       JWU UNDERSTANDING THE I WORD UPDATE

 

1.   Bad news.  I predicted that 857,000 golden gurus would claim there’s a bullion shortage, and so price must explode violently higher, while it goes nowhere.  I was dead wrong.

2.   Instead…. only 847,000 golden gurus claimed the shortage, so only 847,000 of them watched price go absolutely nowhere, while they told their greatest shortage stories.

3.   The bottom bullion line:  There is a shortage of bars and coins.  There’s a shortage at many mints.  Asia can’t get enough kilo gold bars, even though Swiss refiners are working around the clock.

4.   That shortage is what caused team mini mind to believe a free POYGS (price of your gold stocks) parabola is coming immediately, and endlessly.

5.   The “minor” problem with team mini mind’s scenario is this:   There is a shortage of the bars, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s mainly related to refining and minting issues, not total supply issues. 

6.   Standing in line at a mint, and ordering 10{7d2759035a2769ee7a6afa7c646e6642b67314b0cd0e17ac0c6ae4f965ff87d9} of what supermobster CP Chidambaram took offline does not produce higher gold prices, any more than a lineup at one restaurant on a Friday night means there is a shortage of restaurants around the world.

7.   Right now, global gold demand is about where global supply is, at about 2800 tons of mine supply and another 1000 -1500 tons of scrap.

8.   When the banksters dumped 400 tons on the comex, and cut off about 800 tons of annual Indian demand, well… the bank econs don’t care how long it takes Joe Blow mintman to make his coins.

9.   They don’t care about how long it takes a glorified chocolatier in Switzerland to melt 400 oz lbma bars into Chinese kilo bars.

10.                They care about whether total demand overwhelms total supply, and it doesn’t.  At current Chindian demand growth rates, yes, demand will totally overwhelm supply in just a few years.  The bottom POYGS line:  The golden guru gold price dream is near, but not quite here!

11.                Gold’s price, not its premiums (bid-ask spreads), is what reflects the demand-supply balance.  Premiums reflect the size of the profits ripped off from the gold dealers by the banksters.

12.                Please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge this key GDXJ chart.  Today I’m unveiling a new chart format on my daily charts.  I’ve removed some indicator series that most investors don’t really understand.

13.                I’ve kept the 14 series RSI, changed CCI from 25 to 50 and replaced Williams with it, added the 12,26,9 PPO, and kept the 14,7,7 stochastics (stokeillator). 

14.                I’ve also highlighted the 5,15 moving average series, with thick red and blue lines.   For MACD, I’m using the 8,16,9 series, and the 15,9 Trix.

15.                ROC, a momentum indicator, is unchanged, using the 12 series. The enormous volume may, or may not, trump all the technical indicator sell signals now in play.

16.                I issued a profit booking signal on the day of the end of the GDXJ minor trend ride, which was, ho hum, Tues, Jan 21.  I did that based on the (modest) greed I felt in the gold community more than on the position of the indicators. That greed may produce new lows for GDXJ, or simply a consolidation, and then a blast higher.  Let’s cheer for a consolidation and a blast higher but…

17.                Do I think you’re headed for your personal surprise and personal pain zone now?  Maybe.  Do I think you need to wear your pgen marine uniform on the buy-side, if that happens?  Unquestionably, yes.  Do I think you’re going to have a much better year in 2014 in gold stocks than you had in 2013?  Yes.

18.                Please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge.  I’ve been very adamant in stating that even when GDXJ and the other junior gold ETFs sell off, some of your individual stocks will continue to rally anyways, and Asanko is flashing a mountain of buy signals.  It surged after I sent you the news on the stock yesterday, and it’s now one of Goldlion’s larger holdings. It is in a short term profit booking area, but it may be turning the longer term corner.

19.                As the week ends, I’ll ask you to reflect on the fact that after taper #2 was unveiled amidst a number of hyperinflating currencies around the world, plunging stock markets, gold stocks did just fine, thank you very much, despite being technically overbought on the daily charts! 

20.                Please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge.  That’s SGG-nyse, the sugar ETN.  I told you that sugar tends to lead gold and silver.  It lead them down from 2011.  Is it now about to lead them higher?  Focus on the Indian elections, sugar, the yen, and the inflation rate in Japan, China, and India.  Focus on the T-bond.  Congratulations to Morris Hubbartt, for finally stomping on his “bonds will crash, and gold will go parabolic, just like in the 1970s!” crackpipe, and noting the possibility of a huge rally in T-bonds, and an accompanying huge rally in gold.  Shark Janet takes the FOMC stage now, and I’m predicting she continues the taper, and perhaps accelerates it, but announces actual interest rate cuts.  

21.                Question: How is it possible, that while emerging market Gmen are dumping US T-bond holdings, and the Fed is tapering QE to zero, that the T-bond price is rallying, and set to rally much much more?  It’s possible, because institutional money managers of size are buying T-bonds and blowing out Dow, anticipating a cut in long term rates.  There’s another reason that it’s happening, which is…. To make you richer! 

22.                The Dow is oversold on the daily charts, and massively overbought on the weekly charts.  As the “I” word, inflation, begins to appear on more institutional money managers’ radar screens, are these money managers going to buy your junior gold stocks?  Yes they are.  Janet is not a dove.  She’s a shark.  A gold bull shark.  She wants inflation higher, and she’s going to get it higher.  She doesn’t care about QE.  She cares about rates and velocity.  Wait till you see how much inflation in India and China a small amount of American inflation causes.  I wonder if that’s going to cause a stampede, or at least a steady increase, in the number of Chindian citizens going into Chindian gold jewellery stores?   

23.                I wonder where those gargantuan jewellery chains are going to get all the gold they need to meet that mindboggling citizen demand?  Correct, it comes from the gold found and mined by your junior gold stocks.  Shark Janet is ready for the gold bull era.  Queen Gold is ready for the gold bull era.  I don’t think many junior gold stock investors have a clue what happens in POYGS land, when the Shark starts chopping rates while institutional money managers are expressing concerns about inflation.  Watch sugar.  Watch the yen.  Watch the Japan I (inflation) rate.  Watch the shark.  Watch the election in gold tonnage land.  Most of all, watch the mirror, with you in it, wearing your junior pgen marine uniform. 

24.                Get tougher at accepting the minor trend tide of the gold price ocean.  The tide of the gold ocean goes in.  The tide of the gold ocean goes out.  The ocean is the asset.  Do you claim the Pacific ocean is about to disappear when the tide goes out?  Well, don’t do it with the gold asset ocean.  Every time the tide comes in, do you scream, “tidal wave!”, at all the kids on the beach?  No.  So, don’t do it with gold. 

 

Report Card Day!  Even if CP Chidambaram’s gang of mobsters win the Indian election, Shark Janet is going to export so much inflation to India that India’s citizens will probably kill him, if he doesn’t get off the gold stage.  

While Shark Janet pumps the Indian & Chinese stages with inflation from America, Kuroda in Japan will pump them, arguably, just as hard, and then Kuroda will pump America’s institutional money managers with the I word so hard that they’ll look like Iballoons, ready to explode, in a higher POYGS frenzy.   There is no gold shortage now, but there are gold guru crackhead stories that Western mint and refinery shortages prove global demand overwhelms global supply.  These crackhead stories are 100{7d2759035a2769ee7a6afa7c646e6642b67314b0cd0e17ac0c6ae4f965ff87d9} nonsense, and the top bank econs all know that.  All that the crackheads think is here, is quite near…. in Chindia.  It’s 3 – 5 years away in America. In the meantime….hi ho, hi ho, it’s back to watching the gold ocean minor trend tide come in, with your junior pgen marine uniform freshly ironed, you all must go?   

                 

Thanks!

           Cheers

           St

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