Aug 5, 2014
1. What a rebound!
2. Please click here now: http://www.gracelandjuniors.com/images/stories/14aug/2014aug5gdxj1.png Today was a comeback day for junior gold stocks, but also for the mainstream media, as they “went rational”, and posted two very rational gold analyst arguments for (modestly) higher prices.
3. From a technical standpoint, the 5,15 daily chart moving average series is still on a sell signal. That’s a negative. Oscillators and indicators are down, but not seriously oversold.
4. Note the bearish RSI-price non-confirmation that occurred at GDXJ $46, as price was rant-chanted as “about to get away” by many junior gold stock fans.
5. The world’s most rational man, Sunil Kashnap, head of Scotiabank for all of Asia, is an Indian based in Hong Kong. He’s looking at Aug 16 as “gold jewellery demand pickup time”.
6. The technical picture of GDXJ suggests that while today should be celebrated, the mid-August period, rather than 20 seconds from now, fits with the world’s most rational man’s fundamental analysis.
7. GoldLion made perhaps that timing call of the year, within the gold community. Unfortunately, I posted it an hour after he made it. Fortunately, you operated via pgen, as he does, not via analysis or email alert alone, so as the juniors blasted higher while the Dow melted and gold was about flat…
8. You partook in the party, as Goldlion did!
9. It’s true that today’s decline was on very low volume (bullish), but it’s also true that today’s decline was a penetration of a h&s top neckline, which by Edwards & Magee definition, must be on low volume to be valid.
10. So, you are in Aug 16 wait mode.
11. GoldLion’s “and now we rally call” was emotionally important, but his noting of the dramatic drop in the Atna (and other juniors you own) cost of production, was “gold bull era material”.
12. Indians want low prices, not high ones, for anything they buy, in a general sense.
13. Luckily, for YOU, they pay up for gold from your mines, but not much for anything else!
14. Still, the cost of production chops made by your mining companies can mean significant profits, if tonnage demand rises significantly, even if price only rises modestly.
15. Please click here now: http://www.gracelandjuniors.com/images/stories/14aug/2014aug5elg1.PNG In the minds of institutional money managers, relative strength walks the talk.
16. Elgin walks the talk. What matters is which junior gold stocks are taking out (or poised to take out), the March highs. Elgin is one of them. That’s what attracts institutional capital….
17. Even when GDXJ is declining. I’ve told you this, only 10,000 times, because repetition of basic tasks, not complicated analysis, builds market wealth.
18. Why do you think Elgin is still rising? Do you think it’s because some July lows guru crackhead bought it? No. It’s rising because relative strength is saluted by powerhouse institutional investors.
19. Now, I know what you are all thinking, which is, “I have a lot of junior gold stocks that aren’t moving, am I toast?” No, but you need institutional money in the sector on a consistent basis, and it flows first into stocks that have relative strength. As that juices stocks in brokerage indexes, they start to apply more capital to the sector, and that brings retail investors to life.
20. Stocks like Levon (LVN.TO) look poised to rocket, as they’ve taken out their March highs, and corrected severely from there.
21. Stocks like PRETIUM and GOLDEN MINERALS look sit to tear up the charts, upside, and send team growth with safety (sell gold stocks for bullion) into the GARBAGE CAN.
22. Timmins looks like the Ironman on steroids.
23. Gridtime! Look at the stocks that have blown away the March highs. It’s not just one or two of them.
24. If great panther silver destroys the head and shoulders top in play (and in gold stocks, ALL is possible) team gold and silver stock bear is going to be in some serious emotional pain. You can’t defeat India with gold bear analysis. Those who try? Burn and Learn.
Kirk Jr. on the gold explorers bridge, out!