apr 18-19 jwu

Juniors Written Update JWU.

(Pronounced “Jaywoo”)

 

April 18-19, 2015

 

JWU UPDATE

 

  1. If a guru failed to called the past two years of sideways action in gold, can they really be expected to call a “new leg down” or “fresh bull market” in gold?
  2. The answer is of course….NO.
  3. I’ve looked at the component stocks of GDXJ pretty carefully. Some are blasting higher, and some are declining. The temptation of a guru, and his gold-obsessed flock, is to assume that gold trades like regular stocks, and that nothing much has changed in the past two years.
  4. The reality is much different, more subtle, and it can make you a lot richer, but it isn’t the reality of the “new bull market” or “new leg down”.
  5. Please click here now: http://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015apr18kdx1.png It’s too bad all gold stocks (both junior and senior) don’t look more like Klondex!!
  6. After bottoming on the day of the Indian mafia-orchestrated lows of around April 13, Klondex has never looked back. There have been sideways consolidations, but no gulag-style action, and the overall movement has been a steady uptrend.
  7. I’m not sure most gold stocks are quite ready to stage their own Klondex-style moves, regardless of the gold price action, but that time is getting closer. Here’s why:
  8. On the GU site, I’ve suggested that while rates are ultimately bullish for gold, because they are likely more about wage inflation than economic growth.
  9. In the shorter term, rate hike are not bullish for gold. The “gold world” changed on April 13, 2013. Except the wild card of geopolitics, the fear trade as the main price driver for gold, peaked on that day.
  10. Mild to modest inflation is closer to a love trade price driver than fear trade. The rise of Chindian gold jewellery demand has been staggering. Few investors understand that India imported, just officially, over 650 tons of gold in 2014, just for gold jewellery, an all-time record high.
  11. Mild inflation doesn’t create system risk. It creates money manager interest in gold stocks. Your gold stocks.
  12. Is there enough demand in Chindia to create a huge rally in gold? No. There would be if Modi would stand up as a man and dismantle the duties wipe out the mafia’s role in gold. As it is, demand and supply are roughly balanced, with demand growing steadily, but not exponentially.
  13. So, with Western demand static, gold trades sideways, and shows an upwards bias when Chindian demand is strong and talk of wage inflation is prevalent in the West.
  14. When the Western bank econs focus on rate hikes, gold as a downward bias, if Chindian jewellery demand is weak, again within an overall sideways pattern.
  15. What this means is that you can make 10{7d2759035a2769ee7a6afa7c646e6642b67314b0cd0e17ac0c6ae4f965ff87d9} -300{7d2759035a2769ee7a6afa7c646e6642b67314b0cd0e17ac0c6ae4f965ff87d9} very quickly on junior gold stock rallies, but that doesn’t mean this is a “new bull market” or that price is “getting away”.
  16. Also, because gold itself is moving sideways with an overall upwards bias of demand versus supply, declines in gold stocks can be bought with a lot of confidence. A decline isn’t a “new bear market”.
  17. Please click here now: http://www.tanzanianroyalty.com/operational-updates/ There’s some pretty intense work going on Flying Five Portfolio component Tanzanian Royalty (TRX-amex).
  18. That work “fits” with the tripod of excellence that is the strengthening fundamental foundation of concrete under the price of gold: China, India, and Dubai.
  19. Work like TRX is doing, and many other juniors are doing, reduces the risk profile of the company, and attracts investors.
  20. Please click here now: http://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015apr19j1.png That’s the daily GDXJ chart. Look at the nice ascending triangle in play.
  21. Please click here now: http://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015apr19a1.png Are your mines really prepared, for the bull era? Apple is making the gold watch in China.
  22. The rumour is that Apple can ramp up to 60 tons of gold watch sales a month, over the next 1 – 2 years. That could serve as a bridge of demand strength, as US wage inflation gets moving, and Chindian demand and gold market infrastructure ramps up.
  23. Note that the Hot Shots are the GDXJ component stocks that are either in rally mode, or likely poised to rally. The Cold Shots are in decline mode, or potentially about to decline. Stocks that you own that have rallied and become labelled as cold shots, can be sold (a bit via pgen), and stocks that have declined and become hot shots can be bought a bit via pgen. Stay focused on the bull era, the growing tripod foundation under gold, and wage inflation in America. Try to avoid calling for big new bull markets and big new bear markets. This isn’t that kind of market. It’s a much better market than that. It’s solid and real. It’s a real solid bull era, and becoming more so every day.
  24. Gridtime! Please click here now: http://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015apr19cgg1.png After leaping about 100{7d2759035a2769ee7a6afa7c646e6642b67314b0cd0e17ac0c6ae4f965ff87d9} in a month, China Gold has paused at the $2.38 area highs. Please click here now: http://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015apr19cgg2.png That’s the monthly chart. While various gamblers like Bart Baboon advise borrowing money from the banksters and shorting stocks like China Gold at their lows, my suggestion is instead to please click here now: http://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015apr19cgg3.png I like that phrase, “a pipeline of acquisition targets” ! The largest gold producer in China is the controlling shareholder in the company. Rather than joining crackhead Bart Baboon in the casino and betting against the bull era, I’m going to add China Gold to the Golden Monsters Portfolio. See you out there, in fearless mode, on the junior gold stock grid lines!

 

 

Kirk Jr. on the gold explorers bridge, out!

Thanks!

           Cheers

           St

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